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Supercell clusters are4/30/2023 ![]() ![]() northeastern France, Germany and western Poland. Then followed by initiation along the north side of the Alps, moving off northeastward, building into a large MCS or MCC, which keeps being fed by a nocturnal jet tapping from a large body of surface-based CAPE throughout the night. Vertical deep layer wind shear (15-30 m/s) is supportive of supercells over a large area. ![]() SInce the airmass is initially somewhat capped for mixed 1000m layer parcels, most likely afternoon intiation of storms will be central/northeastern France and Poland as indicated by model precipitation. Very steep lapse rates coming from Africa and föhn effects of the Alps and Pyrenees cover the area and crreate large MLCAPE values, from 1000 J/kg over S France, to over 2000 J/kg MLCAPE over S Germany, solidly supported by multiple models. Over France it is associated with clouds and LCL heights below 1000m and more under the influence of cold air advection, whereas over Germany and Poland warm humid air (14 g/kg near the surface) is advected into the region. Forecaster: VAN DER VELDE / PISTOTNIK / PUCIKĪ level 3 was issued for NE France, SW to NE Germany mainly for very large hail, widespread severe wind gusts.Ī level 2 was issued for NE France, Germany and Poland mainly for (very) large hail, severe wind gusts and some chance of tornadoes.Ī level 1 was forecast for S France as well as parts of Poland, Czechia, Slovakia and Austtria mainly for large hail.Ī mostly cloudless frontal boundary lies almost stationary across France, Germany and Poland.
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